With two suited cards, the odds of a flush by the river are about 6.4% in Texas Hold’em.
You came here for straight numbers and clear steps. This page gives you the real odds of landing a five-card flush when you start with two cards of the same suit, plus quick math you can use at the table. We’ll stick to no-limit Texas Hold’em with a standard 52-card deck, no jokers.
Flush Odds In Plain Terms
When you hold two suited cards, you’ll sometimes hit a made flush on the flop, often pick up a draw, and, on rare runs, arrive at the river with five of a suit. The figures below summarize the most asked-about spots.
| Scenario | Probability | Approx. 1-in-N |
|---|---|---|
| Flopping a flush (with two suited cards) | 0.842% | 1 in 118 |
| Flopping a two-card flush draw | 10.9% | 1 in 9.2 |
| Hitting a flush from flop to turn (with a flush draw) | 19.2% | 1 in 5.2 |
| Hitting a flush from turn to river (with a flush draw) | 19.6% | 1 in 5.1 |
| Completing a flush by the river after flopping a draw | ~35% | 1 in 2.9 |
| Ending with a flush by the river (starting with two suited cards) | ~6.4% | 1 in 15.6 |
| Flopping a straight flush with suited connectors | 0.005% | 1 in 19,600 |
What Are The Odds Of A Flush With Suited Cards?
Short answer: around six hands in one hundred across full runouts. That headline rate comes from adding all ways a flush can show up by showdown: flopping it right away, turning it, or hitting on the river. The exact path varies, but the long-run total sits near 6.4% for any two suited cards.
Stage-By-Stage View
Preflop to flop: with two suited cards, a made flush appears on the flop about 0.842% of the time. You’ll see a two-card flush draw about 10.9% of the time, and a backdoor draw (three of your suit) about 41.6% of the time.
From the flop: if you have a two-card flush draw on the flop, you have nine outs. Your chance to finish on the turn is about 19.2%. If you miss the turn, you still have about 19.6% to hit on the river. Across both streets, that’s near 35% to get there by the river.
Overall by the river: combine the cases above and all runouts produce a flush roughly 6.4% of the time when you began with a suited hand.
Quick Reference Links
You can check the poker probabilities overview for flop rates and a clear odds table, and review the hypergeometric distribution that underpins the deck math used here.
Odds Of A Flush With Suited Cards By Street
This section lays out the exact deck counts that create each percentage, so you can trust the numbers and explain them at your game.
Flopping A Flush
Your hand shows two hearts. The flop must bring exactly three more hearts. There are 11 hearts left in 50 unknown cards. The count for “three hearts on the flop” is C(11,3) × C(39,0), divided by C(50,3). That comes to ~0.842%, which matches common charts.
Flopping A Two-Card Flush Draw
You want the flop to bring exactly two hearts. The count is C(11,2) × C(39,1) over C(50,3), which yields about 10.9%. This is the most common way you end up drawing to five of a suit.
From A Flush Draw To A Made Flush
With nine outs and two cards to come, the exact chance to get there is 1 − (38/47) × (37/46) ≈ 34.97%. Many players use the “Rule of 2 and 4” as a quick table-side estimate: multiply outs by 4 on the flop to get a by-river percentage, and by 2 on the turn to get a river percentage. Nine outs gives ~36% by the river and ~18% on the river when one card remains.
Why 6.4% By The River?
You don’t always flop a draw, and even when you do, it doesn’t always complete. Across all paths, the long-run rate for any two suited cards finishing as a flush by showdown settles near 6.4%. That’s about one time every sixteen hands when you continue to the end.
Applying The Numbers At The Table
Raw odds help only when paired with price. Compare your draw equity to the pot odds you’re offered. With a typical two-card flush draw on the flop, your by-river equity sits near 35%. If the call price gives a better return than that equity, the call can make sense. Position, stack depth, and implied returns can swing the decision.
Pot Odds In One Line
Pot odds as a percent = call amount ÷ (pot + call) × 100. If a 1,000-chip pot requires a 300-chip call, the price is 300 ÷ 1,300 ≈ 23.1%. A 35% draw looks fine against that price, while a 19% turn-only draw needs a better price or extra implied value.
Avoid Common Pitfalls
- Overvaluing small suited cards: suited helps, but rank still drives showdown value. A flush with A-high beats a lot of second-best flushes.
- Chasing in bloated pots without price: if the pot odds don’t match your equity, you’re paying extra.
- Ignoring blockers: visible cards of your suit reduce outs. On paired boards, redraw traps can shrink real equity.
Method: From Deck Counts To Percentages
The math comes from sampling without replacement. In short, you count ways to draw suited cards from the remaining deck and divide by all possible boards. The tool for this is combinations C(n, k). When you see a rate like 10.9% to flop a two-card flush draw, it’s the result of simple counts plugged into that model.
Formulas You Can Reuse
- Flop three of your suit: C(11,3) ÷ C(50,3).
- Flop exactly two of your suit: [C(11,2) × C(39,1)] ÷ C(50,3).
- Turn or river from a nine-out draw: 1 − (38/47) × (37/46) ≈ 34.97%.
Worked Micro Example
Say you hold 9♠8♠ and the flop comes A♠5♠2♦. You have nine spades that make a flush. On the turn, your chance is 9/47 ≈ 19.1%. If it misses, the river chance is 9/46 ≈ 19.6%. Combined, you’ll finish by the river about 35% of the time.
Table: Outs To Percentage (One Or Two Cards To Come)
| Outs | By River (Flop) | River Only (Turn) |
|---|---|---|
| 4 outs | ~16.5% | ~8.7% |
| 6 outs | ~24.1% | ~13.0% |
| 8 outs | ~31.5% | ~17.4% |
| 9 outs (flush draw) | ~35.0% | ~19.6% |
| 12 outs | ~45.0% | ~26.1% |
| 15 outs (combo draw) | ~54.1% | ~32.6% |
| Backdoor flush (turn + river) | ~4.2% | n/a |
FAQ-Style Clarifications Without The Fluff
Do Card Ranks Change The Percentages?
No. Any two suited cards share the same base flush odds. Ranks change strength when both players make a flush.
Do Blockers Matter?
Yes. Every time you can see cards of your suit in other hands or on the board, your effective outs drop and so do your percentages.
Does The Table Size Change The Flush Odds?
The raw deck math stays the same. More players mean more competing draws and more showdowns where higher flushes appear.
Bottom Line For Real Hands
Use the headline rate—about 6.4% by the river with any two suited cards—as context, not as a green light to splash. Weave in pot odds, position, stack depth, and the texture in front of you. Do that, and the math turns into better calls, folds, and raises.
For completeness, here’s the exact phrase used by many searchers: what are the odds of a flush with suited cards? You’ll also see the same question asked this way: what are the odds of a flush with suited cards? Both point to the same numbers above.